Economic growth of Tajikistan to slow down in 2017 - ADB

Posted April 10, 2017

Its flagship Asian Development Outlook said India, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam will be behind an expected 5.7 percent increase in Asia-Pacific gross domestic product, with China's expansion seen moderating.

India recorded a growth rate of 7.1 per cent during 2016-17, notwithstanding the fears that demonetisation of high-value currency notes of Rs 500/1,000 in November previous year would adversely impact the economic growth.

She said inflation and the current-account deficit would go along with GDP growth in the near term, projecting that inflationary pressures will continue to firm up from 6.5 per cent last year to 7 per cent this year and 7.5 per cent next year.

ADB says the surplus of Azerbaijan's balance of payment will be 5.9% of GDP in 2017, 11.4% in 2018.

The regional lender forecast that there will be a 6.9 percent GDP growth in 2017-'18, which is slightly down from 7.1 percent growth registered in 2015-'16 fiscal year.

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Chongvilaivan said rising oil prices and the protectionist stance adopted by many countries will increase commodity prices and global trade uncertainties, which would pose a threat to the country's economic growth, particularly this year.

However, the ADB pointed to risks to its rosier outlook, including higher US interest rates and rising household debt in some Asian economies.

"Growth is expected to recover to 6.6 percent in 2018 as government plans to further ramp up public infrastructure investment", according to the 2017 ADO report.

With these prices turning upward over the forecast period, inflation in South Asia is projected to revive to 5.2 percent in 2017 and 5.4 percent in 2018.

"A continued commitment to reforms, especially in the banking sector, will help India maintain its status as the world's fastest growing major economy", Sawada said. "Stronger consumption and fiscal reforms are also expected to improve business confidence and investment prospects", the ADB said. Private consumption, comprising almost 70 percent of GDP, grew 6.9 percent a year ago on higher employment rates and steady inflows of remittances reaching $29.7 billion.

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The Federal Reserve hiked US rates a notch in mid-March, its second tightening in three months. The latest Bank of Japan survey showed Japanese households to be the most upbeat since 1998, helped by the lowest jobless rate in 22 years of just 2.8 percent.

Higher growth in FY18 reflects accelerated infrastructure investment through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is steadily lifting consumer and investor confidence and thereby further catalysing economic activity.

During these years, Myanmar's import is expected to increase much and will suffer the inflation correspondingly, she said.

"The economic outlook is subject to downside risks, both domestic and external while domestic risks stem from vulnerabilities in the financial sector partly traceable to its rapid expansion, in particular the proliferation of microfinance institutions".

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