International Monetary Fund cuts South Africa's growth forecast for next two years

Posted January 23, 2018

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook that more subdued growth prospects were projected in South Africa, "where growth is now expected to remain below 1% in 2018-19, as increased political uncertainty weighs on confidence and investment".

China, which is 2017's growth champion with a growth rate of 6.8 percent, is expected to slow down to 6.6 percent in this year and 6.4 percent next year, according to the Update. Next year, growth is seen edging up to 2.5% versus 1.9% predicted in October. The IMF said it was the "broadest synchronized global growth upsurge since 2010" when the world enjoyed a strong, but ultimately fleeting, snapback from the financial crisis.

In its latest forecast, the Fund projects growth for Britain of 1.5 per cent next year, down from 1.6 per cent previously.

"These include countering global financial stability threats, including cyber-threats; strengthening the multilateral trading system; cooperation on worldwide tax policy, including the fight against money laundering; and promoting sustainable development in low-income countries", he said.

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The International Monetary Fund Monday revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019, saying sweeping USA tax cuts were likely to boost investment in the world's largest economy and help its main trading partners.

China saw a more modest improvement of just one-tenth to 6.6 percent. However, that still represents a slower pace of growth from the estimated 1.8 percent expansion in 2017.

In its WEO update, the International Monetary Fund said the cyclical upswing underway since mid-2016 has continued to strengthen.

The risks to the global growth forecast seems to be broadly balanced in the near term, although it remain skewed to the downside over the medium term.

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World trade has grown strongly in recent months, supported by a pickup in investment, particularly among advanced economies, and increased manufacturing output in Asia in the run up to the launch of new smartphone models.

The corporate tax cuts are seen driving investment, which could add growth of 1.2 percent to the U.S. economy through 2020, while also contributing to the faster expansion in United States trading partners like Mexico.

"Purchasing managers' indices indicate firm manufacturing activity ahead, consistent with strong consumer confidence pointing to healthy final demand", the International Monetary Fund said.

"The Bank of England raised its policy rate for the first time since 2008 in view of diminishing slack in the economy and to target inflation driven by the past sterling depreciation", the Washington-based lender said in its report. 'Firstly, policy makers should use these circumstances to make the structural or fiscal reforms that are too hard to make in more difficult times, ' she said.

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